Prediction Markets Coming to Canada this Summer

Canada is opening the door to prediction markets, a highly controversial, fast-growing industry officially classified as financial technology but widely regarded as gambling. The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) has granted select financial services companies legal approval to operate prediction market platforms, although with limited, highly structured event contracts only based on economic indicators, financial markets, and climate changes. 

Wealthsimple Predict to Launch this Summer 

Toronto-based financial giant Wealthsimple will be the first to launch a prediction market platform, dubbed Wealthsimple Predict. The company says that it is already beta-testing the new app and confirmed plans to launch this summer. 

Notably, Wealthsimple struck a partnership with U.S.-based prediction market giant Kalshi, which will facilitate the event contracts. Notably, the regulatory guidelines require dealers to facilitate access to contracts that are traded and cleared only through platforms registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), such as Kalshi. 

Limited Approval 

While prediction markets offer event contracts on just about anything, the legal approval from CIRO is limited to only three categories: 

• Economic Forecasts – Events such as employment data, inflation rates, housing metrics, interest rates, and more. 
• Environmental Forecasts – Events related to natural phenomenon like climate change, temperature levels, and more. 
• Financial Markets – Events tied to the financial industry, touching on subjects such as stock price chances. 

All other categories are banned. Notably, CIRO has issued a hard ban on events related to politics, sports, and entertainment to prevent conflicts in public interest and election manipulation. 

The Controversy around Prediction Markets 

Prediction markets are a new class of platforms that operate like financial exchanges while facilitating what is technically betting. Like financial exchanges, prediction markets let users buy and sell contracts on various events, such as who will become the next Prime Minister, whether it will snow, and more. The range of categories and events is extensive, even including sports, wars, calamities, and more. 

While prediction markets operate like financial exchanges, critics have labeled them as glorified gambling platforms, especially because of the sports-based contracts. Major prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket get the majority of their revenues from fees on sports contracts. 

The controversy surrounding some of the categories and events covered on prediction markets likely explains why CIRO only granted limited legal approval. Overall, Canadians will get access to over 4,000 event contracts. Notably, all the event contracts will be based on simple, straight-forward yes-or-no propositions. 

Mixed Responses and Growing Pushback 

The Canadian public has expressed mixed reactions to the plans to launch regulated prediction markets. Notably, while many Canadians are very excited, public sentiment is still deeply divided. 

On the one hand, those who approve of the platforms view them as a new, exciting financial tool. On the other hand, those who disapprove view the platforms as another form of gambling – some even consider the platforms dangerous because of the controversial natures of some of their events, such as wars and assassinations. 

A 2026 report based on a study conducted by the Angus Reid Institute revealed that 41% of Canadians are actively opposed to prediction markets. Moreover, 68-70% of the participants are opposed to controversial events like wars and mass deaths. 35% of respondents think that prediction markets are technically gambling platforms. 

Organizations are also pushing back against prediction markets. Notably, the global exchange giant CME Group is suing the CFTC over its role in regulating prediction markets. This could have repercussions for prediction markets in Canada, as they must partner with platforms regulated by the CFTC. Moreover, ongoing legal actions against prediction markets across many American states could have far-reaching consequences.